How hidden ground risk is sinking the world’s largest projects

We’ve seen it all over the news, time and again – the mega infrastructure projects that blow out their budgets and timelines or even fail to get delivered at all.

It isn’t just the ones we see on our screens. In fact, in his study analysing 16,000 megaprojects, megaproject connoisseur and Oxford University Professor Bent Flyvbjerg, found a whopping 91.5% fail on the two crucial counts of delivering to budget and to time. Even so, as governments tackle aging infrastructure and decarbonisation, these megaprojects are on the rise, with McKinsey projecting the industry needs to almost double its growth rate by 2040 to deliver on the $22 trillion construction demand.

So why – when they are so important – do we still get it so wrong?

Professor Flyvbjerg puts this down to four key issues: inherent, or unconscious, cognitive and political bias can lead to poor information share and a dangerous underestimation of risk; project teams that lack clear goals; poor governance with delegated responsibilities down an organisation; and the failure to ‘think slow, act fast’ – which essentially means running rigorous simulation and planning before embarking on complex infrastructure projects.

Seequent Civil Director Pat McLarin adds that despite meticulous planning, external factors like climate change, rising supply chain costs and labour shortages present additional hurdles, marking a particularly challenging era for infrastructure leaders burdened with great responsibility. “You can take all the steps to get the project planning right, but there are so many external factors that impact a project – from changing climate conditions, to increased supply chain costs, and a shortage of skilled workers in today’s tight labour market. It’s a really challenging time for the industry with so much responsibility on its shoulders.”

Think slow before acting fast – understanding the ground

When it comes to thinking slow at the start of a project, it pays to take the time to understand the ground conditions you’re working in, says McLarin. Early planning and simulation are key to a project’s success – particularly for complex endeavors where mistakes are costly. Unforeseen ground conditions are one of the top ten drivers of claims and disputes on infrastructure projects globally, according to the CRUX Insight Report by leading global risk mitigation consultancy HKA.

This issue is widely known, and has been for years; from unstable earth undermining foundations, to unexpected hard rock that is expensive to excavate. So why do project leaders still underestimate the significance of ground analysis?

McLarin notes this can be for a variety of reasons, pointing to the bias identified by Flyvbjerg as one of the culprits. “Often, project leaders eager to meet deadlines or failing to allocate sufficient budget may skimp on ground investigations. Some are relying on outdated practices without fully understanding how far geotechnical expertise has evolved or technology’s role in mitigating risk. Sometimes, the unpredictability of the unknown and unforeseen subsurface conditions leads to risk being underestimated or ignored.”

In our Geoprofessionals Data Management Report, we found a staggering 67% of civil professionals acknowledge that they have data organised across various systems. This lack of centralisation can significantly hinder not only early planning and simulation efforts, but also impact project completion timelines, team efficiencies and decision-making processes. Things are changing, though. The industry is increasingly waking up to the new ways ground risk can be grappled with. And those that have embraced the new tools available to them are reaping the dividends.

The South Dock Bridge 3D model showing the subsurface geology and positioning within the existing high-rise infrastructure (Image: Arcadis).

A railway line fit for a Queen

Seequent’s dynamic 3D ground modelling solution, Leapfrog Works, helped Arup to develop an early-stage digital geology model for Transport for London’s (TfL) Queen Elizabeth Line, to aid in the decision-making of on ground and groundwater conditions.

Arup Engineering Geologist Charlene Ting, says: “Seequent’s Leapfrog 3D modelling software has transformed the way we present and understand ground risk.” TfL Lead Geotechnical Engineer, Mike Black, added, “The quality and level of detail throughout the project speaks for itself. It really has been a step-change to what I have seen previously.”

A bird’s eye view of the Semantok Dam in Indonesia (Image: PT Hutama Karya, Persero).