Earthquakes are not democratic. They strike some parts of a city far harder than others

3D geological models can save lives and protect buildings by helping us spot and understand the subsurface quirks that intensify shaking.

Ensuring the safety of communities living in seismically hazardous regions is one of the toughest challenges facing earthquake engineering. There is often a ‘perfect storm’ of problems – a densely packed population, outdated infrastructure and communication, and poorly constructed housing, all sitting atop complex, hard to predict and turbulent geological conditions.

Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan, is just such a location. Hemmed in by its seismically restive surroundings, with limited opportunities for expansion, it risks becoming a catastrophic earthquake. (The nearby active Ilyak fault zone has already inflicted several intense shocks on the area in the past 100 years.)

In drawing a risk profile for a city, seismologists often attempt to create ‘microzones’. They rely on geological analysis, borehole drilling and seismic noise data to identify local ground conditions that could amplify the impact of any earthquake in particular spots.

However, using numerical modelling that incorporates a 3D geomodel of the subsurface to simulate ground motion and account for all the processes of seismic wave propagation is invaluable to drawing a wider-reaching seismic safety map, especially in complex urban environments.

In this independent study, published in the peer-reviewed Geosciences journal, a team of seismologists and geologists used Leapfrog to create 3D geomodels for target areas in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, with the aim of analysing seismic wave propagation in various lithological and topographical conditions. In particular, they used the 3D geomodel to:

The application of 2D numerical modelling in combination with this 3D geomodel has opened new horizons for analysing potential threats. Special attention was given to analysing site effects and identifying areas most at risk from earthquakes. These data have proved invaluable for planning precautionary measures and developing sustainable development strategies.

Figure 1. (a) Study area: the city of Dushanbe, marked on the map with an area of 12 × 12 km², featuring high-lighted river networks and lithological characteristics of the study area;

(b) Epicentres of shallow earthquakes for the period from 818 CE to 2023. Earthquake data was taken from the Central Asia Seismic Risk Initiative, Earthquake Modelling for Central Asia (CASRI-EMCA; [36,37]) Active faults are highlighted in red.

Read the full academic study to learn more about what intensifies earthquake effects and how models correlate with historical quakes observations.

Farkhod Hakimov is a PhD candidate jointly affiliated with the Department of Neotectonics and Natural Hazards at RWTH Aachen University, Germany, and the Department of Georisk and Environment at the University of Liège, Belgium. His research specializes in seismic microzonation through dynamic numerical simulations across various geologically significant regions, including Aachen (Germany), Dushanbe (Tajikistan), and the Bukit Timah area (Singapore).

Hakimov brings a diverse and comprehensive academic background to his research. He holds a postgraduate degree in seismology from the National Academy of Sciences of Tajikistan, complemented by engineering degrees in system engineering and radiophysics. His expertise spans multiple disciplines, including earthquake engineering, risk assessment, and advanced numerical modeling.

In his current research, Hakimov focuses on Earthquake Engineering, Seismic Hazard Assessment, and Seismology. He is particularly skilled in employing 2D and 3D dynamic numerical models to facilitate seismic microzonation in areas that require detailed seismic risk evaluations. His work contributes significantly to enhancing seismic safety through the application of various geophysical tools and seismic equipment. Notably, Hakimov has been recognized with a DAAD scholarship for his outstanding contributions to his doctoral studies.

Hakimov’s research is aimed at improving the understanding of seismic risks, which contributes to the development of earthquake engineering and seismic microzonation. His recent work, titled “Assessment of Site Effects and Numerical Modeling of Seismic Ground Motion to Support Seismic Microzonation of Dushanbe City, Tajikistan,” exemplifies his commitment to using rigorous data-driven approaches to address complex geophysical challenges using 3D geomodelling combined with 2D dynamic numerical modeling, a methodology first applied to this region. Farkhod Hakimov was born and raised in Tajikistan, where his early experiences with the country’s seismic activity sparked his interest in earthquake science. His academic journey took him from the National Academy of Sciences of Tajikistan to international institutions of higher learning in Germany and Belgium, where he has developed a reputation as a meticulous and innovative researcher. At RWTH Aachen University and the University of Liège, he is recognized for his contributions to seismic hazard assessment and his interdisciplinary approach that bridges geophysics, engineering, and computational modeling.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/farkhod-hakimov/